Market and revenue modelling forUtility-scale renewables and storage
Energy Synapse models the revenue for utility-scale battery, solar, wind and pumped hydro projects at five-minute resolution and organically captures the price volatility that is a core feature of the NEM.
For battery storage in particular, understanding market volatility (both upside and downside) is critical in developing a realistic business case, which is why developers and investors rely on us to inform optimal sizing and equity investment decisions.
Energy Synapse has been providing specialist revenue modelling services in the NEM since 2016. Our advice is completely independent: we have no trading desk and no position in the projects we model.
Our expertise
- Market modelling to forecast wholesale energy and FCAS prices using assumptions from AEMO’s Integrated System Plan, or a completely custom set of assumptions.
- Revenue modelling for renewable and storage projects in both standalone and hybrid configurations.
- Modelling of any storage technology, including lithium-ion batteries, flow batteries, pumped hydro, and more.
- Consideration of any contractual arrangement.
What you receive
Every engagement is scoped to your project, but typically delivers:
- A detailed revenue model covering the project’s full horizon.
- A written report setting out our findings, methodology and assumptions.
- Sizing, duration and configuration recommendations to help optimise your ROI.
- Scenario and sensitivity analysis so you understand the range of outcomes.
- Expert advice and guidance throughout the engagement from Australia’s leading energy market analysts.
Our outputs are built to withstand investment grade scrutiny and are regularly relied upon to inform optimal sizing and to support equity investment decisions (both buy and sell side).
How our modelling works
How does Energy Synapse forecast wholesale energy and FCAS prices?
We use proprietary market models to forecast wholesale energy and frequency control ancillary services (FCAS) prices over the next 20–30 years, by modelling how Australia’s National Electricity Market may evolve over that horizon. Key factors our market model considers include:
- What new power plants will be built and when, including both utility-scale assets and distributed energy resources such as rooftop solar PV and storage.
- When coal-fired power stations and other ageing generators retire.
- Future growth in electricity consumption from electrification of the economy and growing industries such as data centres.
- What new transmission will be built and when.
- Technology and fuel costs.
- Dynamic asset availability and bidding behaviour.
- Federal and state energy policy.
How does Energy Synapse model site-specific revenue?
We use proprietary revenue models to estimate the revenue potential of your project over the next 20–30 years. Features we customise to your specific project include:
- Technology type and performance parameters for BESS, wind, solar, hydro and novel storage technologies.
- Standalone or hybrid projects, in AC- or DC-coupled configuration.
- Offtake and underwriting structures specific to your project, including PPAs, tolls (physical and virtual), revenue swaps, CISA, LTESA and FERM.
- An operational strategy that respects your project goals, warranty limitations and NEM market rules.
- Grid connection limits for import and export at the connection point.
- Co-optimisation across wholesale energy, FCAS and any contracted positions.
Can you model to AEMO ISP assumptions or a custom scenario?
Both. We can build the market model using assumptions in AEMO’s Integrated System Plan, or a completely custom set of assumptions you provide or we develop together, or against multiple scenarios side by side so you can see how revenue responds to different views of the market.
Are your models suitable for investment decisions and due diligence?
Yes. Our revenue models and reports are built to be defensible under investment grade scrutiny, with assumptions made transparent so they can be interrogated. As an independent adviser with no trading desk and no stake in the projects we model, our analysis carries no conflict of interest.